← DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.0% | -7.7 |
| Fire Suited | 7.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 64.8% | +11.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 59.1% | +6.8 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 31.3% | -13.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.1% | +5.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.8% | -14.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.5 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -4.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crossroads Specter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr's Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |